Managing uncertainty: Questions for decision-makers to ask in an uncertain environment
Uncertainties have the potential to have major consequences for a project, programme, portfolio or policy intervention (collectively referred to in this guide as ‘programmes’) meeting its objectives.
Dealing with uncertainties is an inherent part of delivering the sorts of complex, long-term and innovative programmes for which government is responsible. Decision-makers still need to make value for money decisions in this uncertain context.
This National Audit Office guide is aimed at decision-makers who need to make value for money decisions in the face of uncertainty that is hard to anticipate or mitigate.
The guide aims to help you to work with uncertainty. It covers:
- identifying uncertainty
- analysing uncertainty
- planning for uncertainty
It is based on NAO insights from reports across a wide range of government programmes, as well as government guidance relating to risk and uncertainty.